As Ed Perlmutter suddenly finds himself at a cash disadvantage, he is turning to the time-honored tradition among endangered Congresscritters of franking. Nothing like gouging the taxpayer to push out some free mailings (complete with a union print shop bug) to the entire district.

(Click for larger versions)

The mailing itself appears to be preying on individuals who have had problems with excessive credit card debt and would logically be more amicable to Obama and Perlmutter's driving up of the national debt.

Q4 2009 Fundraising Totals (Incumbent in Bold)

Michael Bennet - 1,149,091
Tom Wiens - 725,000
Jane Norton - 550,605
Ken Buck - 39,850

John Salazar - 187,160
Scott Tipton - 109,981
Bob McConnell - 12,471

Betsy Markey - 227,442
Cory Gardner - 197,553
Diggs Brown - 61,174
Tom Lucero - 25,824

Ryan Frazier - 218,824
Ed Perlmutter - 215,201
Lang Sias - 30,931

U.S. Senate

Michael Bennet's fundraising continues at a monumental pace and it is starting to look as if he will have a massive advantage no matter who the Republican nominee may be. Jane Norton once again posted strong numbers, though many observers found it troublesome she did not improve much over the last quarter's take.

Though the Wiens campaign is declining to say how much of the $725,000 they are claiming to have brought in came from the candidate himself, it appears safe to assume that Wiens followed through on his previous statement that he would be investing $500,000 of his money into his campaign. Regardless of where the money came from, this means Wiens now has a very well-financed primary campaign.

Ken Buck had an extremely disappointing quarter. The sole consolation here is the massive ad buy by the Campaign for Liberty that can free up some money that may have been allocated by the Buck campaign for media and divert it into organizational costs.

CD-3

Scott Tipton had a strong showing for his first month in the race. If he is able to keep up the pace he should be able to place the seat into play.

CD-4

Cory Gardner had another strong fundraising quarter. Despite being outraised by Makey, CD-4's Republican voter registration advantage means that Makey would have to be raising even more than she is to make it up. Gardner is strongly positioning himself as the leading candidate in both the primary and general elections.

At $61,174, Diggs Brown has enough money to mount a primary challenge, even if it is a long-shot. He will at least be able to afford a working campaign organization, which is more than what most other underdog candidates in these Republican primaries can say.

Tom Lucero again had a lackluster quarter, but even more damaging to his prospects than his low fundraising haul is his astounding 200% burn rate. When a campaign spends twice what they raised in a given quarter, it is a sure sign it is on it's last legs.

CD-7

Ryan Frazier had a strong fundraising quarter and stands as the only Colorado Republican challenger for federal office to outraise the Democratic incumbent. While a narrow victory, Frazier's take places what was expected to be a safe Democratic seat into play.

Ex-Democrat and Mark Udall supporter Lang Sias, despite starting fundraising at the beginning of November and having most of the quarter to fundraise, came in with a dismal $30,931. Nearly half of his money came from Washington DC, as opposed to Frazier who blew him out of the water and raised funds mostly from in-state, and $5,000 of that came from John McCain's PAC. While Sias gave the illusion of being a strong candidate with his McCain backing and much-touted Washington connections, after raising only $30,391 it is hard to see how he is even remotely serious. Sias' funding problems will become even more severe as he is rumored to be planning to bypass the grassroots by running a costly petition campaign in the coming months.

( - promoted by Rocky Mountain Right - )

As fundraising numbers keep trickling out, it's time to start thinking about what they mean.  About a month ago, I made the prediction that the US Senate race could effectively end this month if fundraising was strong for Norton and weak for Wiens and Buck.  Now that some numbers are being released, let's have another look.

In the Senate, Jane Norton had what can only be described as a bad quarter.  After raising over $500k in the first 20 days, she had trouble matching it over a 90 day period.  Also of note, her burn rate seems to be running at around 40%.  She is burning around $3600/day which is mind numbing considering that advertising has not started yet.  However, Tom Wiens and his campaign seem to be MIA; and Ken Buck is still unexciting.  So unless we have a surprise, Norton is clearly heading toward an easy primary.

In the governor's race, McInnis must have also been disappointed with his take.  However, Maes has shown that he is utterly incompetent as a candidate, raising less than 2% of McInnis.  What began as what many perceived as a quest to gain name ID is now turning into a massive embarrassment.  Time for Maes to quit and try to salvage what last bit of dignity he has.

The other interesting primary to watch is CD-7.  Ryan Frazier built up a lot of good will by exiting the Senate race, and had a very healthy fundraising quarter.  However, I think if Sias can post at least 50% of Frazier's take from Q4, we have a primary race.

Finally, some people are disappointed with the overall deficit that Republican candidates are raising relative to their Democrat opponents.  But I don't think this will be a problem next fall.  Republicans nationwide are showing a willingness to donate across state lines (Scott Brown), and I think that national money will flow into all of our serious races.  I think we will have plenty of money in the key races to win in November.

In a move that surprises no one, liberal Democratic Rep. Ed "Little Napoleon" Perlmutter has decided to lose in northern Denver instead of statewide. From The Denver Post:

U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter this morning said he would not run for governor, clearing another potential candidate from the Democratic field as the party awaits a decision on whether Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper will run.

"It was flattering that a lot of folks thought of me to run for governor," said Perlmutter, D-Golden. "The bottom line is I love what I'm doing now.

"My job right now is to represent the Seventh (Congressional District) and do my darnedest to get re-elected," he said.

Of course, those folks were just the many voices in Ed's very large head, and the bottomline was that he had no statewide name recognition and no one -- whether it be Democratic Party leaders or his own family -- likes him.

Lang Sias has decided to run for Congress as a Republican in CD-7. Sias is a "former" Democrat who only became a Republican in December 2007. He is a resident of CD-2, not CD-7, and the only candidate in Colorado he has ever seen fit to donate to has been Mark Udall.

So what on Earth posessed this man to announce a campaign for the Republican nomination in CD-7?

The answer is quite simple: Lang Sias is friends with John McCain and was a paid staffer for his presidential campaign. This appears to be the entire rationale for this odd campaign. Unemployed McCain staffers from the beltway are currently besides themselves with excitement on Twitter and various other services since Lang appears to be planning to import his entire campaign staff from the East Coast since virtually no one in Colorado has ever seen the guy before.

Lang might be in for a disappointment in this race. In case he had been dozing off through the NY-23 race, a Washington backed candidate with liberal views is not going to over that well with Republican voters (his ignorance is somewhat excusable, most 20-year old College Republicans have probably been Republicans longer than this guy). Perhaps more to the point, basing a campaign around "I'm a John McCain crony" might not be that effective in a state where McCain took only 18.4% at the Republican caucuses and was crushed by Barack Obama in the district he wants to carpetbag to.

It's official:

Aurora, CO - October 15, 2009 - In an address to his supporters today at a family-owned business in Adams County, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier officially announced his candidacy for the Unites States House of Representatives in Colorado’s 7th Congressional District. 
 
Frazier’s message is one of a new way forward with solutions grounded in the principles of fiscal responsibility and limited federal government.  Frazier cites his desire to build a better, more prosperous future for the people of Colorado as his motivation for running for Congress.  He sees the struggling economy, the need for a comprehensive policy that will lead to energy independence, and the fiscally irresponsible policies of the current Congress as the problems most affecting the people of Colorado. 

"I stepped forward in this election because I feel so strongly about the opportunity we have as a country to be better, safer, and economically stronger. We owe our children that much. The dangerous course that the Democrat-controlled Congress has forced us to tread, greatly concerns me. There is too much at stake: people's livelihoods and our children's future. It’s time to re-energize the people's House with new leadership and better solutions. The 7th Congressional District represents the right path, right now to do my part in helping make America better. The people here deserve a better choice,” Frazier stated.

The clearest loser in this move is Ed Perlmutter. Perlmutter has had an easy time in both of his campaign thus far; winning in 2006 in one of the worst years for Republicans while Beauprez was busy tanking at the top of the ticket, and in 2008 against a Republican so low-profile that his campaign was using "John Who? Joh LeRew!" as a campaign slogan. Perlmutter hasn't had a difficult fight yet and Frazier can provide that.

The Senate primary now becomes a two-way race and Frazier's departure will benefit Ken Buck in one key area. Part of the problem that Buck and Frazier had raising money against Norton was that national conservative groups were not sure who to support between the two of them. Now that Buck is the clear alternative to Norton, organizations such as the Club for Growth are now much more likely to intervene and breathe life into Buck's campaign.

(- promoted by Rocky Mountain Right -)

The U.S. House of Representatives finally released the text of the health care bill called ··America·s Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009·· HR 3200 and it can now be read in its 1,018 page entirety. The bill's subtitle is " A Bill to provide affordable, quality health care for all Americans and reduce the growth in health care spending, and for other purposes. All the bill's language was written to further this cause, i.e, to provide healthcare to everyone and to reduce the growth in spending. You can link to a pdf of the health care bill here.

Since the bill's public release, a lot of people have gotten fired up in support and in opposition to it. Each side has called the other liars, and worse. One part of the bill in particular has touched a nerve. That is Section 1233, ADVANCE CARE PLANNING CONSULTATION.

Although the section is only ten pages long, it is still hard to digest. Below is a condensed version of this Section with cites to page number and line number. In Section 1233, the person being consulted is an individual over 65 in the medicare program. The Consultant is called a "practitioner".

p. 428, l. 14-19 - A 'practitioner" is a physician, nurse practitioner or physician's assistant. The practitioner is the one who consults on Advanced Care Planning with the individual. There is nothing in the health care bill that states the consultation is voluntary.

p. 425, l. 17-21 - The practitioner first gives an explanation of and counsels on advance directives, living wills, durable powers of attorney and health care proxies.

p. 426, l. 4-8 - The practitioner then explains and counsels end-of-life services, palliative care where they ease pain without curing the underlying disease, hospice programs for meeting the physical needs of the terminally ill and the benefits for such services. The practitioner does not have to explain any drawbacks of these end-of-life services such as death itself.

P. 426, l. 9-16 - The practitioner finally explains the Order Regarding Life Sustaining Treatment and why it is beneficial to the individual and the individual's family. The practitioner does not have to explain any drawbacks of this Order such as death itself.

After the consultation is over, the individual is not involved with any further parts of the Advance Care Planning Consultation. In no part of the process is the individual required to sign anything or execute any planning documents.

p. 427, l. 10-25 - Having a consultation in and of itself, allows the practitioner to formulate an Order Regarding Life Sustaining Treatment without any further input from the individual. The Order just needs to be signed by a physician, nurse practitioner or physician's assistant to be in full force and effect. The Order is an actionable medical order designed to stay with the individual and to be followed by health care professionals for the remainder of the individual's care.

p. 430, l. 1-4 The only input from the individual for the formulation of the Order is that it communicate the individual's preferences regarding treatment. Since the individual doesn't have to sign anything or affirmatively state anything during the consultation, it is up to the practitioner to presume and interpret the individual's preferences.

p. 430, l. 13-24 The Order has the power to limit medical interventions, limit the use of antibiotics, limit nutrition and limit hydration. The Order can address whether an individual goes to the hospital or remains at a hospice or other nursing home.

So where does the language in the Order come from?

p. 428, l. 5-13 The Order is guided by a coalition of stakeholders including state hospice associations, home health association, etc. This is the section that has been decried as a "Death Panel" by Gov. Palin and others.

Since this house bill is written to reduce the growth of health care spending and people over 65 consume health care dollars at the end-of-life, it is pretty easy to see why Section 1233 was inserted into the health care bill.

Older Americans are not stupid. They can read and they can comprehend this health bill. No wonder so many older Americans are turning out in droves at town hall meetings. You would be angry too if the federal government was trying to kill you off.

If you want to vent, below are the phone numbers for our congress members and senators. Give them a buzz.

Dianna Degette - CD1 - 202-225-4431

Jared Polis - CD2 - 202-225-2161

John Salazar - CD3 - 202-225-4761

Betsy Markey - CD4 - 202-225-4676

Doug Lamborn - CD5- 202-225-4422

Mike Coffman - CD6 - 202-226-4623

Ed Perlmutter - CD7 - 202-225-2645

Mark Udall - Senate - 202-224-5941

Mike Bennett - Senate - 202-224-5852

Mike Robinson is Senior Partner at Robinson & Henry P.C., a Castle Rock, CO law firm.

You can get PPP to do polling in Colorado at by voting Colorado at http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

We are only a few votes down from Arizona, let's get some match-up info for 2010. We need to update from Bill Owens and John Elway

The Washington Post is reporting that Colorado's own Rep. Ed Perlmutter has blundered into an ethical quandry:

Rep. Ed Perlmutter of Colorado inserted a provision into the recently passed House climate change bill that would drum up business for "green" banks, such as the one he has invested in and his family and a political donor helped found in San Francisco.

The bill calls on bank regulators to promote green banking and says federal dollars should be used to support energy-efficient home improvements at government-funded housing projects.

Mr. Perlmutter, a two-term Democrat, has two investments in the 3-year-old New Resource Bank, which calls itself the nation's first green bank. Among other environmentally conscious banking products, the bank offers home equity loans for consumers to make their homes more energy efficient, in addition to construction loans for green builders.

This is likely a harbinger of the political environment of the coming decade. The sheer scope of the stimulus package and the bailouts guarantees that we'll be seeing members of congress caught up in conflicts of interest and corruption problems almost constantly. Ed Perlmutter and other representatives such as Chris Dodd are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to congressmen personally benefitting from the stimulus package, the bailouts, and the government-created "green" cottage industry.

Incidentally, the last representative from CD-7 had his political ambitions derailed in no small part due to a very similar story.

Ryan Frazier and Cleve Tidwell, both candidates for US Senate, are trying real hard to pull a victory in this straw poll. Tidwell had been leading for days when at the last minute Frazier got out the word on facebook and as taken a lead. Over 1150 people have voted. Ken Buck has little support and Bob Beauprez has virtually none.

Update: Tidwell wins with 47% to Frazier's 45%. Ken Buck recieved 6% and Beauprez managed to win 1%.

The first GOP candidate for CD-7 in 2010 has launched a campaign site. Brian Campbell, one of the organizers of the recent "Tea Party" protests, lays out the case for his campaign:

I would like to introduce myself. My name is Brian T Campbell Sr. I am forty years old. I have a wonderful and most loyal wife of fourteen years and together we have five children. I have served as a finance comittee member overseeing a multimillion dollar budget. I served on the governing board of my Church. I have been involved with many community organizations and have served on the Annual Thanksgiving Feeding board with Mustard Seed Ministries.  I was involved in the organizing of festvals, parades and other community events. Thus far, most of my activities have centered around our local community. I believe that I can now serve a higher purpose nationally.
 

We all know that with a big year for Republicans in 2010 there probably won't be enough money to spend on CD-7 unless it is a REALLY great year.

However it is always fund to look at the possible candidates.

Below are the candidates name and their probability of winning the primary, since know one is jumping for the seat there isn't anyone who can just blow away the crowd and win hands down.

In a surprising move, John Suthers has reversed course and decided not to stand as a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010. Chris Rizo at LegalNewsline reports:

As for a possible Senate bid, Suthers said while it is a "marvelous opportunity" and that he would be able to be a viable candidate against Salazar's successor, Democrat and former Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet.

Suthers said the fundraising demands would be too onerous.

This is a very sudden reversal for Suthers. His U.S. Senate candidacy had been considered by most insiders a "sure thing" earlier this month. Only in the last few days did rumors begin to spread that Suthers was getting cold feet.

His run for U.S. Senate was considered so likely that Weld County D.A. Ken Buck and U.S. attorney Troy Eid were already gathering support to run for attorney general, Suthers' current job. Buck has previously hinted at an interest in running for CD-4 while Troy Eid has hinted at an interest in running for, well, anything...

As for the Senate race, the departure of Suthers could create an opening for someone like Mark Hillman or Ryan Frazier to tie up a considerable amount of early support now freed up.

After being snubbed by Bill Ritter for the Secretary of State appointment, Ken Gordon disrupted the governor's announcement by sending out a pre-emptive "congratulatory" email several hours before Bernie Buescher was named for the spot. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, having been passed over for the senate appointment, is engaging in a bit of Gordon-esque behavior of his own.

Ed Perlmutter and his staff started to leak news to the liberal blogosphere that he had been passed over for the appointment. In light of this, it would hardly be surprising if the anonymous sources for the Rocky Mountain News were Perlmutter loyalists.

9News.com now brings us a round-up of reactions to the Michael Bennet appointment and publishes a statement from Perlmutter that doesn't even mention Bennet:

"It's an honor and privilege serving the people of the 7th CD and I look forward to continuing to do so. I'm very grateful for the outpouring of support I received from people across the state as I was being considered to fill Sen. Salazar's seat, to those I owe a great debt of gratitude. Our country is facing very tough times, and I'm ready to head back to Washington to work on these issues on behalf of the hard working people of the 7th."

Hopefully there's more to that statement somewhere and Ed Perlmutter isn't just patting himself on the back.

(- promoted by Rocky Mountain Right -)

Ever stood in line at Target next to that mom who threatens and threatens her bratty little 2-year-old while the kid screams and screams?

Congress has apparently taken the same stance in dealing with the Wall Street mess - only this time it's taxpayers who will be forced to foot the bill or listen to the screaming. Republicans have a chance to demonstrate some tough love with their Wall Street counterparts and tell them to "suck it up."

I, for one, am tired of paying for other people's mistakes and bad gambling habbits. This isn't rocket science - either you have the money and can afford a home or you don't. If a lender decides to take a chance on bad debt, why are taxpayers left making the banking industry whole? You take your loss, 'cause that's how we do it in the NBA.

Most Americans couldn't tell you what is going on in Congress let alone Wall Street - all they know is that things cost more now than they did a year ago.

Most national business groups have thrown their lot in with the Democrats.  Don't believe me? If Republicans are smart, they'll simply thumb their nose at Wall Street and stand up against this sort of government takeover. But I'm guessing that most of them haven't the fortitude it will take to let a few bad companies (and investors) die to preserve the rest of the herd.

History has shown us that 'inevitable' and 'emergency'  legislation like the Patriot Act or Sarbanes-Oxley is never more popular than on the day it is passed -- and this issue isn't all that popular to begin with.

If you've been wondering about CD-7 Republican candidate for Congress John Lerew, he has now launched a campaign website: