Q4 2009 Fundraising Totals (Incumbent in Bold)

Michael Bennet - 1,149,091
Tom Wiens - 725,000
Jane Norton - 550,605
Ken Buck - 39,850

John Salazar - 187,160
Scott Tipton - 109,981
Bob McConnell - 12,471

Betsy Markey - 227,442
Cory Gardner - 197,553
Diggs Brown - 61,174
Tom Lucero - 25,824

Ryan Frazier - 218,824
Ed Perlmutter - 215,201
Lang Sias - 30,931

U.S. Senate

Michael Bennet's fundraising continues at a monumental pace and it is starting to look as if he will have a massive advantage no matter who the Republican nominee may be. Jane Norton once again posted strong numbers, though many observers found it troublesome she did not improve much over the last quarter's take.

Though the Wiens campaign is declining to say how much of the $725,000 they are claiming to have brought in came from the candidate himself, it appears safe to assume that Wiens followed through on his previous statement that he would be investing $500,000 of his money into his campaign. Regardless of where the money came from, this means Wiens now has a very well-financed primary campaign.

Ken Buck had an extremely disappointing quarter. The sole consolation here is the massive ad buy by the Campaign for Liberty that can free up some money that may have been allocated by the Buck campaign for media and divert it into organizational costs.

CD-3

Scott Tipton had a strong showing for his first month in the race. If he is able to keep up the pace he should be able to place the seat into play.

CD-4

Cory Gardner had another strong fundraising quarter. Despite being outraised by Makey, CD-4's Republican voter registration advantage means that Makey would have to be raising even more than she is to make it up. Gardner is strongly positioning himself as the leading candidate in both the primary and general elections.

At $61,174, Diggs Brown has enough money to mount a primary challenge, even if it is a long-shot. He will at least be able to afford a working campaign organization, which is more than what most other underdog candidates in these Republican primaries can say.

Tom Lucero again had a lackluster quarter, but even more damaging to his prospects than his low fundraising haul is his astounding 200% burn rate. When a campaign spends twice what they raised in a given quarter, it is a sure sign it is on it's last legs.

CD-7

Ryan Frazier had a strong fundraising quarter and stands as the only Colorado Republican challenger for federal office to outraise the Democratic incumbent. While a narrow victory, Frazier's take places what was expected to be a safe Democratic seat into play.

Ex-Democrat and Mark Udall supporter Lang Sias, despite starting fundraising at the beginning of November and having most of the quarter to fundraise, came in with a dismal $30,931. Nearly half of his money came from Washington DC, as opposed to Frazier who blew him out of the water and raised funds mostly from in-state, and $5,000 of that came from John McCain's PAC. While Sias gave the illusion of being a strong candidate with his McCain backing and much-touted Washington connections, after raising only $30,391 it is hard to see how he is even remotely serious. Sias' funding problems will become even more severe as he is rumored to be planning to bypass the grassroots by running a costly petition campaign in the coming months.

The Steamboat Pilot reports that the candidates in the now-contested CO-03 primary are pledging unity after the primary, and seem like they're actually going to do it:

“You may not actually, for the most part, be able to slip a piece of paper between what any of us are going to be standing for, with the Republican candidates,” Tipton said last week. “I will not delineate differences between myself and them. … I’m not running against them, I’m running against John Salazar, and we’ll let the voters decide who should carry the banner.”

McConnell echoed that sentiment Sunday.

“The policy differences are minimal — we, along with Martin Beeson, are all good conservative Republicans,” McConnell said about himself and Tipton. “I’ve told Martin and Scott, ‘I’m not running against you, I’m running with you.’ We will let the people of Colorado decide.”

This just goes to show that maybe Republicans really can unify when there are no efforts to maliciously sabotage primaries to prematurely end them or to run a campaign entirely out of Washington D.C. over the wishes of local activists. What a concept.

National liberal blog Daily Kos occasionally commissions polls on various races. Their most recent was a national poll on voter enthusiasm. To put it mildly, they found a bit of a gap between Republicans and Democrats:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

In other words, 81% of Republicans polled say they plan to vote in 2010 compared to only 56% of Democrats. This is a bleak result for Democrats who finally seem to be realizing that without Barack Obama on the ballot next year, not only will turnout be depreciated from lack of excitement but many demographics might not come to the polls altogether. Couple that with growing discontent among independent voters, and the worst-case scenario for Democratic incumbents could be emerging.

Just for fun let's take a look at the voter registration breakdown in CD-3, CD-4, CD-7, and statewide. Then let's take a look at the makeup of the electorate if we adjust to assume that 81% of Republicans turn out, 65% of unaffiliateds turn out, and 56% of Democrats turn out as the Daily Kos poll showed. (Raw voter registration percentages are provided along with the altered values in parenthesis.)

CD-3 (Adjusted)

Republican 34.7%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 32.1%  (31.0%)
Democratic 32.7%  (27.2%)

CD-4 (Adjusted)

Republican 37.2%  (44.2%)
Unaffiliated 34.6%  (33.0%)
Democratic 27.6%  (22.7%)

CD-7 (Adjusted)

Republican 28%  (34.4%)
Unaffiliated 33.7%  (33.5%)
Democratic 37.7%  (32.1%)

Statewide (Adjusted)

Republican 34.8%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 30.8%  (29.6%)
Democratic 34.4%  (28.6%)

Democrats will probably rally to put on a bit better showing than the Daily Kos poll is predicting now, but in any case it is looking like there will be a distinct advantage for Republicans in turnout. This is basically a flip from the 2008 elections which saw a highly motivated Democratic electorate turn out for Barack Obama. John Salazar, Betsy Markey, and Ed Perlmutter are in for the rudest awakenings as a result: any Democratic candidate elected in 2008 will have their base suddenly M.I.A..

Both of Perlmutter's elections have been in years with highly motivated Democratic bases and these numbers show that CD-7 could transform into an effective Republican-plurality district when adjusted for turnout. Betsy Markey was an aberration, the floor will fall out from underneath her now that she lacks both an unpopular Republican opponent and sharing the ballot with Obama. John Salazar has had a decent amount of Republican crossover votes, but Republicans making up that large a portion of the electorate when adjusted and combined with anti-incumbent sentiments among independents could doom him.

* Voter registration numbers were taken from COMaps.org for CD-3, CD-4, and CD-7 and are dated August 2009. Statewide numbers were taken from the Secretary of State's statistics for active voter registrations as of October 2009.

State Representative Scott Tipton is entering the race for the 3rd Congressional District joining Martin Beeson and Bob McConnell in the primary to unseat incumbent John Salazar.  Rep. Tipton told the Pueblo Chieftain Salazar's support of the health care bill pushed him into the race.

Tipton said Salazar's support for the House Democratic health care legislation "was the straw that broke the camel's back."

"Now we're moving to a government-run health care system," Tipton said in a telephone interview. "That will be punitive. They are talking about cutting $500 million from Medicare. No one can look me in the eye and tell us how this will create any more efficiency."

According to Tipton, State Senator and former gubernatorial candidate Josh Penry will not be entering the race, although there is no official word on Penry's future plans. 

Rep. Scott Tipton has just announced that he intends to run against John Salazar in CD-3. Republicans now have top-tier challengers in CD-4, CD-7, and CD-3 with a clear possibility of taking back all three. The Montrose Daily Press reports:

Tipton, R-Cortez, said he had initially ruled out running against John Salazar for Congress, but the past several months - of growing federal deficit and joblessness - changed his mind.

"Over the past eight months, we've seen the national debt triple," Tipton said. "We've passed a stimulus package that has not created jobs."

Comprehensive healthcare reform that recently passed the House gave Tipton the final push.

"The straw breaking the camel's back was government healthcare and the public option. Our congressman has apparently played a part in it," Tipton said.

Of course, all of these congressional candidates (along with every other Republican candidate in the state) could very well be screwed if they end up associated with Tom Tancredo.

Rick Wagner in the GJ Sentinel pushes the idea of a Scott Tipton candidacy in CD-3 to take on John Salazar:

Tipton, who lives in Cortez, is presently a state representative for House District 58, but in 2006 he mounted a campaign against then freshman Rep. Salazar. It was a bad year for Republican candidates and a particularly bad one for underfinanced campaigns like Tipton’s. He was however, viewed as a hard-working and knowledgeable candidate, one who, with the right backing and timing, could present a formidable presence. Political rumblings indicate he might be thinking this is the time.

The 2008 election carried troubling signs for Salazar as he rode the Obama support to victory but won with 2 percent less of the vote than he received in 2006 against an underfunded and outspent regional candidate. In this district, money to spread a message over long distance is a powerful force.

In 2006 Salazar overwhelmed Tipton 2 to 1, spending over $2 million on the campaign. But something happened in 2008. Salazar spent $900,000 on his 2008 campaign compared to regional candidate Wayne Wolf’s $26,000. Still, he could not carry Mesa, Montrose or Delta counties.

Tipton would surely be the strongest candidate Republicans could front in CD-3, but it is fairly unlikely that he would give up his state house seat at this point to challenge Salazar. Should Salazar step aside, he would be as close to a lock to be the next Congressman from that district as anyone could be.

Winners

1. House and Senate Republicans- The House and Senate GOP caucuses overwhelmingly influenced this year’s legislative session. Even with massive majorities in both chambers, Legislative Democrats just could not seem to move the ball on their agenda without it completely blowing up in their faces. Why? Because the minority party had them scared shitless. The Dems capitulated on so many of their key issues and so timidly wielded their majority status that it is hard to see how Liberal activists could be excited about reelecting them.

2. Josh Penry- Penry led the fight on the Senate Floor against so many bad proposals that it is difficult to know where to begin. The Liberal blogosphere continually attacked him with everything they had and it just never stuck. Clearly Penry emerges out of this session as a winner and someone who is uniquely positioned as a leader in the Republican Party.

3. Cory Gardner-No one works harder than Gardner does. The guy is everywhere and always has a smile on his face and a positive demeanor. Gardner will be unstoppable in his run for the 4^th CD and his performance this session proves it.

4. Free Market Activists- Just about no one can remember a larger crowd amassing at the capitol that this year’s tea party protest. Estimated at over 5000 people large the crowd was so large that capitol insiders say the tax and spending House Democrats literally had to shut down debate in the House at times because of the crowd noise.

5. Scott Tipton-Tipton has emerged as a stellar freshman legislator. In his first year he is already taking leadership on tough issues such as Katie’s Law. Tipton is one to keep an eye on for the future.

Losers

1. Colorado Taxpayers- Colorado Democrats went on a tax and fee raising bender that would make Pelosi’s Washington crew proud. From higher car taxes to cigarette taxes Colorado taxpayers are going to be seeing major increases to their cost of living all across the board. Way to go Democrats.

2. Bill Ritter-There really is not too much left to say about this bozo. $80,000 sightseeing trips to China, Check, zero leadership on the economy, Check, pissing off one of the most important industries in the state, Check. Nothing spells L-O-S-E-R like R-I-T-T-E-R right now and EVERYONE knows it.

3. Gail (Failed) Swartz- She is nearing the end of her first Senate term and she still can’t even explain her own bills. This Aspen Democrat just doesn’t have the chops to represent her largely rural Senate District and this year proved it. She is just one of many House and Senate Dems who are going to be looking for new jobs in 2010. Swartz loses big-time next November.

4. Fake Liberal Progressive Moveon type groups- These jokers have seen their worst year yet. Colorado Media Matters shut down, the Colorado Independent laid off nearly all of their staff and Michael Sluttner of ProgressNowColorado can no longer get quoted to save his life. Yup, everyone is sick and tired of these fake activist groups and their incessant bullshit. These guys had some clever moments in the past but their day is done.

5. Democrat Rhetoric- Hope, Change, how about the most partisan year in the legislature that anyone can remember. Democrats empty and vapid promises of hope and change have been a major letdown.

( - written by a friend of the site - )

Email from State Rep. Scott Tipton's office:

Scott Tipton, Colorado's 58th House Representative, is working on passing Katie's Law in Colorado.  Katie's Law allows law enforcement to collect DNA upon felony arrest - felonies, not traffic stops, people charged with rape, murder, burglary and other heinous crimes. 

Countless unsolved rapes and murders have been solved through this law and over 200 people nationwide have been freed for crimes they did not commit.  We need this law in Colorado!

It made it through the Senate judiciary committee and is waiting to go before Appropriations.  We are trying to show as much grassroots support as we can.  Please take a moment and sign the petition showing your support for Katie's Law http://scottrtipton.com/Katie_s_Law_Petition.html

You can also read Scott's editorial discussing it here http://cortezjournal.com/main.asp?Search=1&ArticleID=5223&SectionID=5&SubSectionID=5&S=1

Thanks for your help.  If you support this law please pass this along to your friends and ask them to sign the petition too. 

Representative-elect Scott Tipton (HD58) launched a legislative website.  His press release is below.

Today Representative-elect Scott Tipton launched his online legislative office offering an innovative approach to constituent service. Tipton’s online office presents a variety of resources and tools for the people of the 58th House District.

“I have always believed in offering more open and responsive government. As the next Representative of the 58th House District, I will work tirelessly to give the people a stronger voice in the General Assembly.”

Tipton’s online office offers his legislative agenda for the 2009 session, a constituent tool box to assist people in dealing with state agencies, a forum to express your concerns along with a page dedicated to online communities, media outlets and blogs.

Visit www.ScottRTipton.com for more information.

###

His YouTube video welcoming visitors to his website is below.

JOHN SALAZAR MAY BE OBAMA'S AGRICULTURE SECRETARY: Ken Salazar's odds of an Obama appointment may be next to nothing, but things are looking up for John. (H/T: Face the State)

CD-3 would very likely flip back to the Republicans in 2010 without John Salazar around. Bernie Buescher would be the best bet for Democrats to hold on but after he was ejected from his State House seat it is very unlikely that he could carry the entire Third Congressional.

Republicans have a strong bench in CD-3 that could take the seat in a special election. Sen. Josh Penry would handily win in a general election and could probably take the Republican nomination with as much ease as he took the Senate Minority Leader position. If Penry opts to run statewide or stay put in the Senate; likely GOP candidates could include Rep. Scott Tipton, Rep. Ellen Roberts, or Matt Smith.

Rep. Frank McNulty along with Rep.-elects Laura Bradford and Scott Tipton are going to carry a version of Jessica's Law next year. The Grand Junction Free Press reports:

Republican Rep.-elect Laura Bradford of Collbran, Highlands Ranch Republican Rep. Frank McNulty and Rep.-elect Scott Tipton, R-Cortez, will carry a bill next year tethering a new minimum sentence to child rape charges.

Bill Ritter was asked why Colorado doesn't already have a law like this on the books earlier this year. Ritter's response consisted mostly of nervous stuttering and insisting Colorado already has "the best sex offender laws in the country."

The news isn't all bad tonight. A few promising signs emerged in Colorado amongst the Democratic tsunami.

5. Commissioner Kevin McCaskey

Jefferson County Commissioner Bob McCaskey appears to have successfully fought off a challenge from Jason Bane. McCaskey was implicated in a series of Whitewater-style scandals perpetrated primarily by fellow Jefferson County Republicans. Bane is a primary author of ColoradoPols and a key player in the vaunted "Colorado strategy" by liberals to turn the state blue in part by using the internet, he was also a darling of the Colorado "netroots." Bane's apparent loss should make Republicans realize that there are limits to what the Democrats can do in this state.

4. Sen. Shawn Mitchell

A successful conservative legislator who served as a top surrogate for Bob Beauprez's 2006 gubernatorial campaign, Mitchell was considered a prime target for a liberal pick-off this year. Mitchell rebuffed his well-financed challenger and retained his seat. He is also now a prime candidate for higher office such as the 2nd Congressional District or Attorney General.

3. Rep.-elect Scott Tipton

Most expected Scott Tipton to succeed in his bid to replace Ray Rose. Few expected him to win in a landslide in a decidedly anti-Republican election year. Tipton's knockout punch against Democrat Noelle Hagan has all but guaranteed him his House seat as long as he wants. More importantly, Tipton proved his pull among independents and Reagan Democrats and has set himself up as the next "superstar" of the Western Slope.

2. Rep.-elect Laura Bradford

Bernie Buescher was next in line to succeed Andrew Romanoff as the Democratic Speaker of the House. Laura Bradford has put the kibosh on those dreams. Bradford remains slightly ahead of Buescher, although it appears likely that the race will be headed to a recount. With Anne McGihon, Andy Kerr, and Paul Weissman already being rumored to be jockeying for Speaker of the House; Bradford may have lurched the Colorado House Democrats to the left and out of the mainstream.

1. Bill Ritter's 2010 Opponent

Bill Ritter's reputation was already in shambles. The resounding rejection of Amendments 58 and 59 completely shattered it. Ritter had so much invested in Amendment 58 he even put forward "Colorado Promise Scholarships" named after his 2006 campaign theme. Granted that Republicans don't put up a pro-bailout Republican, the biggest winner tonight may have been Bill Ritter's eventual 2010 opponent.

Ben Knighthorse Campbell has gotten involved in the race for Colorado's 58th State House district by endorsing Republican Scott Tipton. From the Tipton campaign:

(CORTEZ, CO) – Former U.S. Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell today endorsed Scott Tipton in his bid for the state legislature.   
 
"Southwest Colorado is unique in its population, public lands and beliefs,” said Campbell.  “To represent this area effectively demands an understanding of our people, our land and our values.  Scott Tipton is the voice we can depend on in Denver to represent us.
 
“As a former State Representative, United States Congressman and United States Senator, I know the difference one voice can make.  I know that Scott will be there fighting for us and our values.
 
“I hope you will join me in supporting Scott Tipton for House District 58," concluded Campbell.
 
“I am pleased to have Senator Campbell’s strong support in my campaign for the State House,” said Tipton.  “We are building a strong, bipartisan team of activists and political, business and community leaders, creating tremendous momentum behind our campaign.  Ben’s friendship and support are tremendous assets.”

(- promoted by Rocky Mountain Right -)

Cortez Journal - May 24, 2008

Cortez Republican Scott Tipton is touting a key endorsement this week by a well-known Southwest Colorado Democrat in his race for House District 58.

Former State Sen. Jim Dyer, D-Durango, announced Thursday that he is supporting Tipton for the 58th District seat over fellow Democrat Noelle Hagan, of Montrose. Both Tipton and Hagan are vying to replace retiring state Rep. Ray Rose, R-Montrose, in the Nov. 4 general election.

“I’ve known Scott for 25 years, and I believe he is the best per son to represent Southwest Colorado and Western Slope interests in Denver,” Dyer said in a prepared statement. “No one will work harder for us at the state Capitol.”

Dyer was first elected to Colorado Senate District 6 in 1988. He resigned in 2001 and was appointed by then-Gov. Bill Owens as a Colorado Public Utilities director. Dyer was replaced in the state senate by current Sen. Jim Isgar, D-Hesperus, who is term-limited after the 2010 election cycle.

Prior to becoming a state senator, Dyer was elected to represent House District 59, which includes Cortez, Durango and Bayfield.

Read more on the former Democrat State Senator's endorsement of Scott Tipton.

(- promoted by Rocky Mountain Right -)

House District 58 candidate Scott Tipton reported over $20,000 raised in his first fundraising quarter.  According to the Secretary of State's website Tipton's opponent, Noelle Hagan, has raised only $17,000 total after three quarters of fundraising. 

(- promoted by Rocky Mountain Right -)

Watch Scott Tipton's online announcement for Colorado House District 58 below, and be sure to stop by TiptonForStateHouse.com to sign up to volunteer!