The Steamboat Pilot reports that the candidates in the now-contested CO-03 primary are pledging unity after the primary, and seem like they're actually going to do it:

“You may not actually, for the most part, be able to slip a piece of paper between what any of us are going to be standing for, with the Republican candidates,” Tipton said last week. “I will not delineate differences between myself and them. … I’m not running against them, I’m running against John Salazar, and we’ll let the voters decide who should carry the banner.”

McConnell echoed that sentiment Sunday.

“The policy differences are minimal — we, along with Martin Beeson, are all good conservative Republicans,” McConnell said about himself and Tipton. “I’ve told Martin and Scott, ‘I’m not running against you, I’m running with you.’ We will let the people of Colorado decide.”

This just goes to show that maybe Republicans really can unify when there are no efforts to maliciously sabotage primaries to prematurely end them or to run a campaign entirely out of Washington D.C. over the wishes of local activists. What a concept.

National liberal blog Daily Kos occasionally commissions polls on various races. Their most recent was a national poll on voter enthusiasm. To put it mildly, they found a bit of a gap between Republicans and Democrats:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

In other words, 81% of Republicans polled say they plan to vote in 2010 compared to only 56% of Democrats. This is a bleak result for Democrats who finally seem to be realizing that without Barack Obama on the ballot next year, not only will turnout be depreciated from lack of excitement but many demographics might not come to the polls altogether. Couple that with growing discontent among independent voters, and the worst-case scenario for Democratic incumbents could be emerging.

Just for fun let's take a look at the voter registration breakdown in CD-3, CD-4, CD-7, and statewide. Then let's take a look at the makeup of the electorate if we adjust to assume that 81% of Republicans turn out, 65% of unaffiliateds turn out, and 56% of Democrats turn out as the Daily Kos poll showed. (Raw voter registration percentages are provided along with the altered values in parenthesis.)

CD-3 (Adjusted)

Republican 34.7%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 32.1%  (31.0%)
Democratic 32.7%  (27.2%)

CD-4 (Adjusted)

Republican 37.2%  (44.2%)
Unaffiliated 34.6%  (33.0%)
Democratic 27.6%  (22.7%)

CD-7 (Adjusted)

Republican 28%  (34.4%)
Unaffiliated 33.7%  (33.5%)
Democratic 37.7%  (32.1%)

Statewide (Adjusted)

Republican 34.8%  (41.8%)
Unaffiliated 30.8%  (29.6%)
Democratic 34.4%  (28.6%)

Democrats will probably rally to put on a bit better showing than the Daily Kos poll is predicting now, but in any case it is looking like there will be a distinct advantage for Republicans in turnout. This is basically a flip from the 2008 elections which saw a highly motivated Democratic electorate turn out for Barack Obama. John Salazar, Betsy Markey, and Ed Perlmutter are in for the rudest awakenings as a result: any Democratic candidate elected in 2008 will have their base suddenly M.I.A..

Both of Perlmutter's elections have been in years with highly motivated Democratic bases and these numbers show that CD-7 could transform into an effective Republican-plurality district when adjusted for turnout. Betsy Markey was an aberration, the floor will fall out from underneath her now that she lacks both an unpopular Republican opponent and sharing the ballot with Obama. John Salazar has had a decent amount of Republican crossover votes, but Republicans making up that large a portion of the electorate when adjusted and combined with anti-incumbent sentiments among independents could doom him.

* Voter registration numbers were taken from COMaps.org for CD-3, CD-4, and CD-7 and are dated August 2009. Statewide numbers were taken from the Secretary of State's statistics for active voter registrations as of October 2009.

State Representative Scott Tipton is entering the race for the 3rd Congressional District joining Martin Beeson and Bob McConnell in the primary to unseat incumbent John Salazar.  Rep. Tipton told the Pueblo Chieftain Salazar's support of the health care bill pushed him into the race.

Tipton said Salazar's support for the House Democratic health care legislation "was the straw that broke the camel's back."

"Now we're moving to a government-run health care system," Tipton said in a telephone interview. "That will be punitive. They are talking about cutting $500 million from Medicare. No one can look me in the eye and tell us how this will create any more efficiency."

According to Tipton, State Senator and former gubernatorial candidate Josh Penry will not be entering the race, although there is no official word on Penry's future plans. 

Rep. Scott Tipton has just announced that he intends to run against John Salazar in CD-3. Republicans now have top-tier challengers in CD-4, CD-7, and CD-3 with a clear possibility of taking back all three. The Montrose Daily Press reports:

Tipton, R-Cortez, said he had initially ruled out running against John Salazar for Congress, but the past several months - of growing federal deficit and joblessness - changed his mind.

"Over the past eight months, we've seen the national debt triple," Tipton said. "We've passed a stimulus package that has not created jobs."

Comprehensive healthcare reform that recently passed the House gave Tipton the final push.

"The straw breaking the camel's back was government healthcare and the public option. Our congressman has apparently played a part in it," Tipton said.

Of course, all of these congressional candidates (along with every other Republican candidate in the state) could very well be screwed if they end up associated with Tom Tancredo.

Rick Wagner in the GJ Sentinel pushes the idea of a Scott Tipton candidacy in CD-3 to take on John Salazar:

Tipton, who lives in Cortez, is presently a state representative for House District 58, but in 2006 he mounted a campaign against then freshman Rep. Salazar. It was a bad year for Republican candidates and a particularly bad one for underfinanced campaigns like Tipton’s. He was however, viewed as a hard-working and knowledgeable candidate, one who, with the right backing and timing, could present a formidable presence. Political rumblings indicate he might be thinking this is the time.

The 2008 election carried troubling signs for Salazar as he rode the Obama support to victory but won with 2 percent less of the vote than he received in 2006 against an underfunded and outspent regional candidate. In this district, money to spread a message over long distance is a powerful force.

In 2006 Salazar overwhelmed Tipton 2 to 1, spending over $2 million on the campaign. But something happened in 2008. Salazar spent $900,000 on his 2008 campaign compared to regional candidate Wayne Wolf’s $26,000. Still, he could not carry Mesa, Montrose or Delta counties.

Tipton would surely be the strongest candidate Republicans could front in CD-3, but it is fairly unlikely that he would give up his state house seat at this point to challenge Salazar. Should Salazar step aside, he would be as close to a lock to be the next Congressman from that district as anyone could be.

( - promoted by Rocky Mountain Right - )

Today's Politico:  www.politico.com

John Salazar has gotten his first challenger for the CD-3 seat today in district attorney Martin Beeson.

Beeson offers few details on his website, but was elected district attorney for an area covering a large part of the western slope in a 2005 recall election.

JUST APPOINT SOMEONE ALREADY: More speculation from the Rocky Mountain News over Salazar and the USDA appointment.

KKTV TEACHES US ABOUT EASILY MISINTERPRETED HEADLINES: "Salazar Accepts Appointment" can be taken many ways when it pops up in a news feed.

BLAGEJOVICH IN 2016: Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich actually thought he could set himself up to run for President in 2016.

Thankfully, the auto-maker bailout plan has been killed by the Senate. It seems some priciples of fiscal conservativism are alive and well in the Republican Party after all. In case you're curious, Wayned Allard voted against the bailout and Ken Salazar voted in favor. (H/T Ben DeGrow) This is great news.

What isn't such great news is our would-be Governor's vote on the auto-maker bailout. Here's how the Colorado Congressional delegation voted on it:

YEA
DeGette
Perlmutter
Salazar
Udall
NAY
Musgrave
Lamborn
NOT VOTING
Tancredo

Tom Tancredo previously voted in favor of the $700 billion bailout plan. Tancredo's defenders immediately called this an isolated incident (even though a $700 billion spending spree arguably cancels out a career of fiscally conservative votes). Tancredo's staff, seemingly catching on to the outrage among fiscal conservatives over the first bailout vote, came out and tried to play damage control by promising opposition to the auto-maker bailout. PolitickerCO reported the following last month:

Tancredo will be voting against the proposal, said spokesman T.Q. Houlton.

"We're bailing out these large auto industry makers where basically they've run their companies really in a bad direction, and we shouldn't be holding the taxpayers responsible for that," Houlton said.

The article went on to say:

Houlton said Tancredo will remain in Washington, D.C. throughout the U.S. House's lame-duck session.

To use a bit of internet slang: WTF, Tom?

Rep. John Salazar appears to have taken himself out of consideration for a posting in Barack Obama's cabinet by accepting a position on the House Appropriations Committee. While Salazar might not be out of the mix for a cabinet posting, the committee assignment hardly suggests he is going to be around the House much longer. In fact, it suggests that House Demoracts might be worried about rumors of Salazar's intent to retire in 2010.

Republicans tried a similar tactic with Bob Beauprez in 2005. When word got around that Beauprez was vacating his seat to run for Governor, he was given a spot on the House Ways and Means Committee in a move viewed by some as an attempt to persuade him to stay in Congress.

Democrats would be in a nearly identical, if not worse, situation to the Republicans in 2006 if Salazar were to step aside. Expect the House Democrats to pull out all the stops over the next few months to try to convince John not to return to the private sector.

The Grand Junction Sentinel is not alone in their opposition to John Salazar becoming Secretary of Agriculture. Bruce Friedrich at the Huffington Post is voicing his opposition to Salazar because Salazar hates polar bears... or something...:

First, Obama must pick a secretary of agriculture who does not have ties to agribusiness and who has not spent her or his career defending the status quo. Three names that are being discussed in the media--Charlie Stenholm, Colin Peterson, and John Salazar--would be horrible choices, as these men have supported the status quo consistently and would be very unlikely to support even the most modest of reforms. Even on noncontroversial animal welfare measures, they have gone against the will of the American people to support the worst policies imaginable--including horse slaughter and the sport-hunting of polar bears--even when the vast majority of Congress, including Sen. Obama, were going the other way.

 (- promoted by Rocky Mountain Right -)

By The Daily Sentinel

Thursday, December 04, 2008

We must admit we're torn by the news that President-elect Barack Obama is reportedly considering 3rd District Congressman John Salazar for secretary of agriculture.

If Salazar, the San Luis Valley farmer, were sent to Washington, it would open up the 3rd District for a special election and the possibility that someone who is far more dynamic and productive could be elected to replace Salazar in Congress.

But the same reasons we could not endorse Salazar in his re-election bid for Congress this year make him a poor choice for Obama's Cabinet.

He has been a staunch supporter of the Farm Bill, with all of its overly generous subsidies to certain types of farmers. Obama needs an agriculture secretary who will seek real reform in the bloated farm bill.

Salazar has also been an unabashed supporter of earmarks - pork-barrel funding which members of Congress tack onto budget bills to get money for projects in their own district. The Agriculture Department needs someone willing to speak out against that kind of funding.

Finally, Salazar was largely absent from this part of the 3rd District until the final weeks of the campaign, and he was not a leader in some of the critical natural resources debates on the Western Slope. As Agriculture Secretary he would oversee the national forest service and its multitude of contentious natural resource issues throughout the West.

John Salazar unquestionably knows farming, especially in the San Luis Valley. But we believe he would be the wrong choice for secretary of agriculture.

The Rocky Mountain News today quotes unnamed Democratic Party sources making claims that the 3rd Congressional District would be competitive in a special election:

But Democrats say the results of the November election bode well for them. Democratic U.S. Sen.-elect Mark Udall beat Republican Bob Schaffer by about 12,000 votes in the district, and the Democratic state board of education candidate lost by about 3,000 votes.

The article irresponsibly fails to note MSNBC exit polls showing John McCain winning Western Colorado by 9-points and the recent Georgia Senate runoff indicating depressed Democratic voter turnout without Barack Obama on the ballot.

Somebody better call Bill Menezes at Colorado Media Matters, this article is a bonafide orgy of uncriticality!

JOHN SALAZAR MAY BE OBAMA'S AGRICULTURE SECRETARY: Ken Salazar's odds of an Obama appointment may be next to nothing, but things are looking up for John. (H/T: Face the State)

CD-3 would very likely flip back to the Republicans in 2010 without John Salazar around. Bernie Buescher would be the best bet for Democrats to hold on but after he was ejected from his State House seat it is very unlikely that he could carry the entire Third Congressional.

Republicans have a strong bench in CD-3 that could take the seat in a special election. Sen. Josh Penry would handily win in a general election and could probably take the Republican nomination with as much ease as he took the Senate Minority Leader position. If Penry opts to run statewide or stay put in the Senate; likely GOP candidates could include Rep. Scott Tipton, Rep. Ellen Roberts, or Matt Smith.